Archive for January 4th, 2008
Won’t last
I’m off to my daughter’s graduation, so this is as brief as can be: congratulations to Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. But it won’t last. Two points.
First, looking at who voted for whom in Iowa, it is clear that the Huckaboom is not likely to last. When half of the voters are self-described evangelicals, this can’t continue in more secular states. Too bad; Mike Huckabee, for all of his lack of experience, seems a genuinely nice man. But he won’t finish last; I predict he’ll be John McCain’s veep.
Second, don’t count Hillary out. Too many independents voted for Obama, as well as too many young’uns. If Stainless John McCain is the Republican standard bearer, his strong point has been his independence, his demonstrated contrarian approach to some things held near and dear to the Republican Party elite. Lots of independent support, in other words.
When it comes down to crunch time in the Democratic field, it’s the oldsters who will hold the day. And they’ve trended, strongly, for Hillary. Alleged experience, and all of that. But it would likely work.
Prediction for November: McCain-Huckabee against Hillary Cllinton-Bill Richardson.
Just saying…
