Do the math

First, a little data. Indiana is 88% white, 9% black. North Carolina is 74% white, 22% black. Both states went for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Exit polling in both states show about the same results, race-wise: 60 or so percent of whites went for Hillary; 90 percent of blacks went for Obama. This is not among the general population, but among voters in the Democratic primaries in both states. The vast majority of whom are Democrats or independents.

How does this bode for Obama in the general election in those states? First, overall, he’s most unlikely to do better in Republican-leaning states when all voters go to the polls than he did in the Democratic primary. It is also reasonable to assume that Obama will continue to get 90% of the black vote. I suspect that he will also not do as well among whites as Hillary did, at least in Republican-leaning states.

If the votes break as these exit polls indicate, the general election would result in a razor-thin majority for McCain in North Carolina, and a comfortable margin in Indiana. If they break as in the primary, and if the exit polling is accurate.

I suggest that Obama still overpolls; some whites are embarrassed about admitting they did not vote for a black candidate. And, in the general, it’s hard not to see more whites going for McCain than went for Hillary in the primary. At least in Republican-leaning states.

But even if we cede states like Indiana and North Carolina to McCain, what about swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio? They’re bitter, clingy white guy territory. Congrats on the getting the nomination, Barack. You will not win without Ohio, dude. And don’t even think about Florida, unless the Democratic Party finds some way to count their votes. Even Michigan might be in play this year, again, thanks to your party’s stupid rules.

Now get some clever writer to pen your concession speech after the November election. You’re not the one we’ve been waiting for.