Swing time

The latest Rasmussen poll has Mitt Romney closing the gap on Rick Perry, who now leads by 4%.

What makes this poll interesting is that it was conducted among likely Republican primary voters and is thus a better indicator than many polls that are taken of registered voters. Or the least informative, “man in the street” polls, where people are picked at random with no indication as to whether they’ve even heard of the candidates.

What makes the poll less interesting is that it was a national poll, as opposed to state-by-state polls. Further, it would of greater interest to see how each candidate might poll against Obama in a head-to-head.

Of greatest interest would be how Perry and Romney poll against Obama in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Why these three? If these three states go for the Republican, Obama is One and Done. All three went for Obama in 2008; all three are now bellwether states, which, besides their own electoral votes (29, 18, and 13 respectively) would be a rock-solid indicator of how other swing states will vote.

Romney is looking better, standing tall under some pretty harsh attacks from Perry and Bachmann; Perry appears to be fading a bit from his entry at the top. As for what polls mean, they’re, at best, just indicators. As far as who wins, that’s up to the voters.

If you want to know who the Republican nominee is most likely going to be, pay close attention to the South Carolina polling and primary election: they’ve been right every time since 1980.

If you want to know who will win the November 6, 2012 presidential election, keep your eye on the returns from Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. It might be an early election night for a change we can hope for…

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