The Herminator

The latest Rasmussen poll shows the newly-energized Herman Cain losing to Obama:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that Obama earns 39% support while Cain attracts 34%. In that match-up, 14% prefer some other candidate, and 14% are undecided.

Not too good, you say? I suggest that in these polls, a significant portion of The Herminator’s support depends on name recognition. With the Perry-Romney dogfight sucking the oxygen out of the Republican contest, Cain’s actual performance against Obama is under-represented in the poll results.

Finally, consider the 28% who chose neither Cain nor Obama: half preferred “some other candidate.” Since Obama will (most likely) not be challenged, that means the poll shows 14% are looking for a Republican other than Cain. I would bet that at almost all of these people will, in the general election, vote for the Republican nominee. Whoever he (or she) might be.

Let’s say 10% of these who are for “some other candidate” go for Cain in the general, and the other 4% simply stay home on election day.

As for the undecideds, the open question is: how many will vote against Obama? My guess? At least half. Add them up, and the real result of this poll might be Cain 51% – Obama 46%. Might be; it’s all just guesswork built on a single poll.

But the trend is clear: The Herminator is not someone to be dismissed out of hand.


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